Oil at four-year lows near $40 despite OPEC cut

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de-facto leader, said today the group will slash a record 2 million barrels from its daily production as of January 1, while Russia and other countries said they would remove hundreds of thousands of additional barrels from the market.

An official decision to cut 2 million barrels from output all at once would be a first for the organization. OPEC had cut that amount from its output four years ago, but that was done in two stages.

Also significant would be formal support from Russia, Azerbaijan and other non-OPEC producers. Mexico, Norway and Russia slashed production in the late 1990s, at a time oil was selling for about $10 a barrel. (via OPEC to cut oil output by 2 mn barrels a day).

These price cuts may be difficult to sustain for a simple reason that Oil revenues are a significant part of Government revenues in these countries. While oil revenues are on a down ward drift - Government expenses are trending upwards. Combine this the recessionary global outlook, and pump priming will increase Government's expense bills.

The US-OPEC nexus of increasing oil prices leading to greater dollar liquidity onto higher lending resulting in global overcapacity boosting asset prices in booming stock markets is now broken.

To recreate that cycle will take a decade - at least, if at all.

RK Laxman's 50 year old cartoon - relevant even today

Fifty years earlier, RK Laxman’s cartoon made us smile. Today, the status remains as bad as 50 years ago. Today, it is no longer a smiling matter - it is tragic.

80% of India’s population

The Indian education excludes a vast majority of Indian from higher education as Indian higher system is predominantly in English. This puts a premium on English - and discounts Indian languages in the educational sweepstakes. The disadvantaged students who have studied in Indian languages ensure that their children get the 'advantage' of English education.

The negative effect this on Indian self esteem is not even a point of discussion here.

The principle of exclusion (a colonial idea), is a dominant marker of the entire Indian education system - rather than inclusion. British (and before that, Islamic rulers’) colonial-imperial practices supported foreign languages on the backs of the Indian taxpayers’ contribution - and actively worked on destruction of local cultures.

For instance, in the erstwhile State Of Hyderabad (equal to about 10%-12% of modern India), ruled by the Nizam, a large non-British kingdom, 2000 year old local languages like Telugu and Marathi were considered uncouth and barbaric languages - compared to a 700 year old language like Urdu, which was supported by the State. Paeans in praise Urdu can be heard even today - much like the 'emergence of Hinglish' is being celebrated in contemporary India.

Thus anyone without the knowledge of Urdu was excluded from the system of governance, administration and interaction with public services and utilities. So it is now in India, with English.

Colonial India’s English push was understandable. But, after 60 years of Independence, state patronage by the Indian Republic of English language is unwarranted - and illegitimate.

Access Control and opportunity loss

This restricts 80% of India's population from contribution and access to opportunity. Without looking at it from ethical or social equity viewpoints, but purely as an economic question means, we should look at the cost of this policy.

How does this hinder India. India loses every year about 200,000 highly educated people to the West. These 200,000 people have been educated at subsidized Indian Universities at a considerable cost to the poor Indian taxpayer. What return does the tax payer get from this? Negative returns.

The make up of these 200,000 people that India loses. 100,000 are students who leave India, mostly never to return. Another 100,00o are 'captured' by the Western organizations and systems. The other aspect of this loss is that this loss of people, directly and disproportionately, supports Western dominance of economic and academic systems - by India.

Something's gotta give

What happens when English stops being an important language in the global sphere? What use will India’s investment in English be at that time? And this will happen sooner than we imagine - at a greater cost than we believe.

The combined GDP of the English speaking world is 14.1 trillion (2003 figures) - of which the US contributions is more than 71%. By a similar comparison, the next largest bloc of multi-nation, same-language speakers is the Spanish whose combined GDP is US$ 3.20 trillion. The French speaking bloc comes a poor third at US$2.20 trillion. The English speaking bloc, in spite of their temporary dominance, is still worried about the French attempts to keep its Francophone flock safe. It is but a matter of time that the US contribution will decrease - and hence, trade denominated importance of English will decrease.

Will we become a nation that loses control over its future? The danger of becoming a South American clone is all too real. After, Spanish decolonization, the South American countries persisted with Spanish practices - and Spanish language. We all know how South American countries tracked the descent of Spain into dictatorships and instability.

The decline of the (Greco-Roman) Byzantine Empire, was similar. After the split of the Eastern Roman Empire from the Western, over the next 200-400 years, Greek language became the official language of the Byzantine Empire. Eastern Europe followed the lead of the Byzantine Empire and used Greek extensively - at a cost to their own language. After the fall of the Byzantine Empire, Eastern Europe lagged Western Europe.

The cost of switching from English

Assuming that a 100,000 essential books need to translated into local languages, at a cost of say Rs.100,000 per book, it still amounts to Rs.1000 crores. Is that a large sum of money for modern India. Hardly.

What is the loss to India? How much does this reduce India’s growth rate by? Hard numbers to quantify - but definitely big numbers.

Why persist?

So, why does contemporary India persist with this policy.

Because all the high and mighty, finally want their children to ‘escape to the West’, with a good education from India - at the cost of India’s poor. This vested interest makes this policy go around.

And a lot of propaganda.

Indifference in Pakistan?

हंस के लिए हैं पाकिस्तान, लड़ के लेंगे हिंदुस्तान

With a contemptuous smile, we robbed them off Pakistan;

Now we will battle, to conquer Hindustan

Synthesis of Pakistan

For many years, the above slogan (popular in pre-partition India amongst Muslims) summed up the idea of Pakistan. The State of Pakistan was an artificial creation - and popular leaders like Sheikh Abdullah refused to even meet up with Jinnah - and who was deemed irrelevant.

The Deoband seminary issued a call to Muslims, against the idea of Pakistan. Deoband seminary was set up after the 1857 War, as a religious institution to ‘escape’ British repression. 75 years after its establishment, the Deoband school became famous during Independence, due to its strong anti-Jinnah, anti-Partition stand. And 60 years after Indian independence, the Deoband seminary is again, leading an anti-terror campaign in India.

Colonial Legacy

Yet, the British colonial administrators needed to prove that only they could rule over India. Indians were after all 'men of straw ... of whom no trace will be found after a few years'. And they were led by 'half naked fakir'.

The colonial administrators created false divides - between Hindus and Muslims, between Hindus and Hindus. In some they succeeded - and in some they didn't. Kashmir, was after all an issue that was created by British commanders of Indian and Pakistani armies - in 1948. Mountbatten was the also the Governor General of India at that time.

Modern Pakistan

The Pakistan nation is actually 5 parts - The army, the ISI, the politicians, the 22 families and then there are the rest. Some may want to add the fundamentalist clergy as the sixth element. And now there are fringe terrorist groups - like LeT also on this list. Mahbub ul Haq's “22 families” speech in Karachi in 1968 highlighted the power and wealth of a few families in Pakistan.

No one in Pakistan talks to anyone. Each has contempt for the other four. And all five have separate agenda.

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn ...

And what partition era Indians remember most about the slogan above, was the indifference, to the fate of Pakistan by the soon-to-be Pakistanis - and their total India-centric focus. It is their reading, that the Pakistanis may not mourn away the passing away of Pakistan much - which is something that most Indians do not factor. Having got Pakistan for a song, they may soon be found snickering at its break up.

Is it this indifference which has allowed Pakistan to become a client state of the West?

Resident Non Indians

Some part of the Indian bureaucracy and English speaking media is possibly made up of RNIs (Resident Non-Indians), whose children and future, they have 'secured' in the West - much like the indifferent Pakistanis.

And this may be the one quality, that possibly is the one thing, that the RNIs and Pakistanis share - indifference to the fate of the country.

What should India's counter terrorism plan look like ...

The Blood letting

The Indian media (especially English) and the India's Westernized elite has been hounding for blood ever since the terrorist attacks on Mumbai's upper class business centres for the first time. After the 26/11 attack on Mumbai prime centres, they have been able to force the resignation of Shivraj Patil, India's Home Minister. Maharashtra's Home Minister, RR Patil has also resigned. Maharshtra's Cheif Minister is expected to be replaced also - soon.

Rafiq Zakaria, a Westernized Indian, now a US citizen, said on CNN, at the Global Public Square program.

This crisis has highlighted one of the peculiarities about India. Its society, economy, private sector are amazingly dynamic. The same cannot be said of the Indian state. Government in India is too often weak, divided, incompetent.

The Times Of India, desperately sombrely, thinks, "it is time to ask our politicians: Are you going to go back to playing politics with our lives? Or are you going to do something worthwhile with yours?" The normally incisive, MJ Akbar, falls into the trap of blaming politicians, latching onto politico bashing, by saying, "We have been defeated by incompetent governance, both in Mumbai and Delhi ... ineffectual leadership (is) turning a tough nation into a soft state. We should have been world leaders in the war against terrorists, for no nation has more experience Instead we are wallowing in the complacent despair of a continual victim."

The normally vacuous Lord Baron Meghnad Desai,writing in the Indian Express, continued with his inanities, "It is a test of leadership. Can India's political parties, tested for 60 years in the crucible of democracy, rise to this occasion and save our country?" Hindustan Times joins in with its own two bits. Inderji Hazra, in a very superior fashion writes, but does not see the contradiction when he talks about 'Frankly, the 'lack of form' shown by our political class isn't a big deal for me ... The two things: political meddling and the law of averages."

How can politicians become effective without 'meddling', and if they don't 'meddle', we will then blame them for 'inaction'.

Apportioning blame

Blaming politicians, who are temporary office bearers, is escapist and is a well tuned strategy by the entrenched Westernized bureaucracy, which bears the full responsibility for this - the success of this operation and the lack of efforts to kill this problem at its root.

The Indian Government (Central and State together) have an employee base of about 55 lakhs. The number of elected representatives total around 5,500. The Indian population totals 110 crores (1100 million). It makes no sense to make scapegoats of 5500 politicians.

Blaming 5500 politicians is the knee jerk reactions by the intellectually devoid. Taking down Shivraj Patil is small consolation.

The greater responsibility (for not taking actions) and the credit for the brilliant commando operation is with the bureaucracy. The rewards should go to the various people for handling this operation so well, starting with the Mumbai police - and the culpability of those who have twiddled for years, starting with the Indian diplomatic community, the IFS and the Finance Ministry bureaucrats, who have not earmarked enough attention to these areas, is more important.

Who gets killed determines actions

India Today reports,

'1,202 have been killed in 23 terrorist strikes in the country since the attack on Parliament. Five of them took place between December 2001 and May 2004 when the NDA was in power and the rest during the last four-and-a-half years of the UPA Government.'

Millions were affected in Bihar, when the Kosi river changed course and flooded Bihar.

As the overall flood situation in Bihar registered significant improvement with the water level all major rivers flowing below the danger mark, Bihar government today launched distribution of money for relief and succor on a war footing.

The water level of Kosi, Ganga, Burhi Gandak, Gandak, Mahananda and Bagmati were maintaining receding trend and was flowing below the danger mark along their course in Bihar, Central Water Commission sources said. The death toll in the current spell of floods stood at 217 in 18 districts, official sources said.

How come no one resigned till now? Not after the train blasts in 2006. Not after the bomb blasts in 1993. What is the difference this time around? The difference is that the rich and famous have been affected this time around.

We cannot afford the rich and famous to get affected, can we? But that is another discussion and another place.

Round up the usual suspects

One idea that has now been floating around is the creation of a central agency for coordinating intelligence and anti-terrorist activities - much like the FBI and the CIA. The many failures of the FBI and the CIA is usually overlooked - against its few successes. While there may be a case for such an agency, this cant be the winning idea between 1993 to 2008.

The other idea is of course war with Pakistan! A direct war with quasi-nuclear power is something that India cannot afford, is unprepared for and raises more questions than it answers. Post war scenarios are of course much worse. India will neither be able hold onto Pakistan or let go of a truncated Pakistan. It may well turn out to be another Bangladesh - where the HuJI is emerging as another terrorist force threatening the East and North East India.

Then there is perennial loser idea of international and UN intervention. These are defensive ideas whose value is limited. India now needs to become more aggressive.

What can India do!

India must follow a three point agenda.

One - Close down the Peshawar arms bazaar. This one-time small arms bazaar has became the sourcing centre for terrorists all over the world. Initially, stocked up with arms from the CIA funded jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan, Peshawar, has become a problem that never ends. If required, there should be a UN mandate to send in a multinational force to surround, capture and destroy this centre for arms and armaments.

Two - Pakistan precarious financial position does not allow it the luxury of an arms race with India. The world must withdraw all technology from Pakistan for all arms and ammunition. No RDX, no tanks, no F-16s, no APCs. Pakistan must be put on strict diet of military technology blockade by the world. No less.

Pakistan's suspected role in counterfeit currency operations must also be put under the scanner. Controlling Government's of the 12 companies that dominate the currency printing business must be made to choose. Between India and Pakistan. If the German Government can arm twist their companies to suspend currency supply to Zimbabwe, there is no excuse for them to not to lean on dealings with Pakistan.

Pakistan’s (valid) security concerns should be met with a tripartite agreement between China, India and Pakistan which will guarantee Pakistan’s current borders. No disputes, no claims from Pakistan have any legitimacy any more. Let Pakistan take care of its current territory and people. POK will remain with Pakistan - and current LOC will remain unchanged. So, Pakistan will not lose.

Three - Pakistan is at the crossroads of a jihadi, terrorist, criminal elements who have joined together and created an incendiary mash-up. Fueled by a drugs trade worth billions, arms trade worth millions and respectability, as they are ‘carrying out a religious jihad’.

The leadership of these gangs has to be de-fanged. LK Advani, as the earlier Home Minister, forwarded a list of ‘Most Wanted 20′ to Pakistan nearly 7 years ago. Not one has come to India. The US has not co-operated on this one important Indian requirement.

How can India make this happen

It has to be realpolitik. India can no longer give away benefits without quid pro quo. Make P&G, ABB, Alsthom, Renault, Unilever, Siemens, Pepsi and Coke earn their living. The Indian operations of these companies pack a mean heft. They must join in to secure the markets they wish to exploit. The US has to deliver. Peshawar markets must close down. The Pakistan defence production cannot be used against India. Pakistan has to deliver the criminal elements - dead or alive.

Indian co-operation with the West on the new world financial system will be based on co-operation by the West. India should move to create systems which allow political and social stabilization a rule - and not an exception.

These strategic elements of using Indian advantages to gain our ends is the way to forge ahead.

Indian media breaks into the Top 10 of Alexa's Movers and Shakers of Internet

Alexa Web Search - Movers and Shakers: "

6. up 254% ~ Weekly Traffic Rank: 659 (was 2,724)

NDTV

Breaking News, Latest News, e-Bulletins, Stocks, Bollywood, Cricket, Video, Blogs and RSS feeds from India
www.ndtv.com
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Covered in glory

While, busy going up the grease pole of ratings and rankings, the Indian media has not covered itself with glory on the analysis Mumbai 26/11 terror strike. They have stoked a feeding frenzy against the politicians - who are are accountable and should pay a price.

Glaring Omissions

They have NOT pointed any fingers against any bureaucrat(s) who have slept on the job. While they have extensively covered the visits, careers, deaths, heroics, funerals of Salasker, Kamte, Karkare and Maj Unnikrishnan, they have completely ignored the funerals of the foot soldiers and police constables - like Gajendar Singh. No politician has seen it fit to go the houses of the foot soldiers and police constables.

Shame on you, Indian media.

Indian media in feeding frenzy - 26/11 Mumbai terror strike

Too much or too little

There are two schools of thought about Indian neta - especially when it comes to an crisis. One school says, that Indian bureaucracy is the best and can get it done - except it is hobbled by 'interference' from the neta.

The other schools veers to the view which says that Indian netas are doing nothing. It is the netas inaction which is the root of all problems in India. Usually, both schools of thought are used by the same set of people - based on what seems more appropriate for the context.

How can politicians become effective without ‘meddling’, and if they don’t ‘meddle’, we will then blame them for ‘inaction’. So, it has been after the 26/11 terror strike in Mumbai.

Feeding frenzy in the Indian media

The Indian media (especially English) and the India’s Westernized elite has been hounding for blood ever since the terrorist attacks on Mumbai’s upper class business centres for the first time. After the 26/11 attack on Mumbai prime centres, they have been able to force the resignation of Shivraj Patil, India’s Home Minister. Maharashtra’s Home Minister, RR Patil has also resigned. Maharshtra’s Cheif Minister is expected to be replaced also - soon.

Rafiq Zakaria, a Westernized Indian, now a US citizen, said on CNN, at the Global Public Square program.

This crisis has highlighted one of the peculiarities about India. Its society, economy, private sector are amazingly dynamic. The same cannot be said of the Indian state. Government in India is too often weak, divided, incompetent.

The Times Of India, desperately sombrely, thinks, “it is time to ask our politicians: Are you going to go back to playing politics with our lives? Or are you going to do something worthwhile with yours?” The normally incisive, MJ Akbar, falls into the trap of blaming politicians, latching onto politico bashing, by saying, “We have been defeated by incompetent governance, both in Mumbai and Delhi … ineffectual leadership (is) turning a tough nation into a soft state. We should have been world leaders in the war against terrorists, for no nation has more experience Instead we are wallowing in the complacent despair of a continual victim.”

The normally vacuous Lord Baron Meghnad Desai,writing in the Indian Express, continued with his inanities, “It is a test of leadership. Can India’s political parties, tested for 60 years in the crucible of democracy, rise to this occasion and save our country?” Hindustan Times joins in with its own two bits. Inderji Hazra, in a very superior fashion writes, but does not see the contradiction when he talks about ‘Frankly, the ‘lack of form’ shown by our political class isn’t a big deal for me … The two things: political meddling and the law of averages.”

Mint, a sister publication of HT and WSJ, was out with its editor saying, "The heads have started rolling --- and high time too. While people such as Shivraj Patil, Vilasrao Deshmukh and R.R. Patil deserve to be sacked, this is also a good time to look at the overall leadership deficit in India."

Anti-neta colonial legacy

From colonial times, the Indian neta has been a favorite target of smear campaigns, innuendo and propaganda. Colonial administration in India worked hard to undermine the credibility of the Indian ‘neta’ -for obvious reasons. Colonial bureaucrats (and their successors, the IAS) covered their incompetence and corruption with this lopsided image of the neta. Indians politicians are possibly as corrupt as any others in the world.

Ask the Japanese about Kakui Tanaka and Lockheed affair. Or ask the British about Mark Thatcher shenanigans. But don’t ask Americans about the son of bootlegger who flouted the US Constitution many times - John F.Kennedy. After JFK’s killing, 60 years on, there are many suspects who had motives. Mafia tops this list.

The State Of Foreign Affairs

The state of inter-government relations in South Asia is a sign of lazy Indian diplomatic corps (the IFS) which considers all these neighbourhood postings as ‘punishment’ postings. The ‘best’ of IFS corps wants postings to Western capitals. Like the IAS, the IFS is another albatross around India’s neck.

A large part of India’s Foreign Ministry budget goes towards Western engagement (for proof, look at the dubious Festivals of India in USA, France, Russia, Britain, etc). Instead if the same money was spent in the sub-continent, it would have been better spent. The huge monies spent on Western embassies are mis directed. It would be ideal if those Western embassies were Spartan, frugal (I should actually say Gandhian) - and the money saved can be invested in the sub-continent.

No neighbour would want to willingly embrace China! After all, India offers a template that others can use - and China offers a road map that points downhill. It is India’s superior attitude which has made it attractive for our neighbours to embrace China.

For this reason, again SAARC has been bombast - and little action. It is our diplomatic corps that are found wanting. The SAARC opportunities in the economic area are huge - and history is on our side. It is our Western pre-occupation and Pakistani Fixation which are to blame

Let us get real, shall we?

The Indian Government (Central and State together) have an employee base of about 55 lakhs. The number of elected representatives total around 5,500. The Indian population totals 110 crores (1100 million). It makes no sense to make scapegoats of 5500 politicians.

Blaming politicians, who are temporary office bearers, is escapist and is a well tuned strategy by the entrenched bureaucracy which bears the full responsibility for this - the success of this operation and the lack of efforts to kill this problem at its root.

The Indian himself

Is the Indian looking at himself?

Firstly, the Indian does not want to pay his political leaders. For the last 20 years, I have received this chain mail, which talks about how each politician costs this country Rs.100,000 per hour, etc. What does the Indian expect - 10 million Gandhijis who will serve the country for free?

The same goes for the army, the police and the bureaucrats. The logic here is 'anyway they take so much in bribes that they do not need anything more." Or one step further, "However much you pay these guys, they will not stop. They will continue to take bribes."

It is these Indian attitudes which make for a soft state - and not some 5500 politicians - a mix of great and inane, competent and corrupt.

And the solution starts here with me. Are you with me or against me!!